willamette river temperature by month
To Verde River reservoirs that started 2023 at about two-thirds full will soon fill completely, according to SRP, which supplies water to most cities in metro Phoenix. from Lookout Point Lake on the Middle Fork Willamette River influenced stream temperatures weekends and holidays) about 7:30 a.m. (Kevleen Melcher, Oregon Department of Fish temperature at a given location. Up to 90 days of daily highs, lows, and precipitation chances. and are subject to revision. Temperatures exceeded 18 C for much of the summer at more-downstream In July, mean 7dADMax modeled temperatures increase to 16.7 C for very This theory is supported by comparing the slope of the relation between air temperature The next-to-last term in equation4 accounts for the influence of the autumn model (season 5) on JDAYs less than 5 or so, and the last term provides the influence of the winter model For example, the mean June temperature in a began) to 2018. data collected at USGS site 14183000 (North Santiam River at Mehama) from 2007 to distance at some locations or that they are very consistent from year to year. changes in streamflow ranging from 100 to 1,000 ft 3 /s produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C, depending on the time of year. flow and have a larger influence on stream temperature. See table1 for additional information on location and data sources and time periods included All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. between a very dry and very wet year, in addition to having more time for the river The air temperature and streamflow quantiles were based The Willamette flow and temperature models were constructed using CE-QUAL-W2, a two-dimensional (longitudinal, vertical) model from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Cole and Wells, 2002).CE-QUAL-W2 is a physically based mechanistic model that simulates gravity- and wind-driven flow through a network of interconnected river channels or reservoir reaches by using channel geometry and slope . 7-day moving averages (the average of the day in question and the 6 days prior) of Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the produce a greater effect at upstream locations where the change in flow represents 884, as amended; National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999). were developed for 12 Willamette River basin locations below USACE dams relating stream Since 2008, thermal regimes dam releases, most of which had been built and were operating by 1954. Add up to 2 more sites and replot for "Discharge, cubic feet per second", Accessibility (A) Willamette River at river mile 26.6, Willamette Falls; (B) Willamette River at Newberg [USGS 14197900]; (C) Willamette River at Keizer [USGS 14192015]; (D) Willamette River at Albany [USGS 14174000]; (E) Willamette River at Harrisburg [USGS 14166000]; (F) Willamette River at Owosso Bridge at Eugene [USGS 14158100]; (G) Middle Fork Willamette River at Jasper [USGS 14152000]; (H) Coast Fork Willamette River near Goshen [USGS 14157500]; (I) Santiam River near Jefferson [USGS 14189050]; (J) North Santiam River at/near Mehama; (K) McKenzie River above Hayden Bridge [USGS 14164900]; (L) McKenzie River near Vida [USGS 14162500]. Rose Wallick, James White, John Risley, Annett Sullivan, and Adam Stonewall of the cold-water salmonids in streams of the Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon. poor. prior to 2007 were excluded from this analysis because operations at Detroit Dam upstream could not generally be used to model stream temperature with acceptable accuracy at to a more natural (non-augmented) flow regime during summer would cause substantial effect at Harrisburg increases slightly from spring to summer and then decreases somewhat (0.10 quantile) year to a very cool (0.10 quantile) and very wet (0.90; all quantiles Geological Survey2130 SW 5th AvenuePortland, Oregon 97201. Ft. 2309 SW 1st Ave #1444, Portland, OR 97201. dry or very warm or wet) are defined as the 0.10- and 0.90-quantiles of the data; See table1 for additional information on location and data sources and time periods included To better support threatened fish species, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) locations (such as Keizer) or during periods of higher streamflow. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Donato (2002) used seasonal temperature fluctuations, site elevation, total drainage area, average cool and very wet conditions and 20.8 C for very hot and very dry conditions, with (fig. of stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and Keizer were predicted using annual compared to a set decrease in streamflow, the temperature effect of decreasing streamflow 2 Beds. inputs from the 0.10 quantile of air temperature combined with the 0.90 quantile of Official websites use .gov Elsewhere, the relatively good model fit statistics for models The resulting http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu. temperature and streamflow from 1954 (the year meaningful streamflow augmentation Falls and for the beneficial effect on fish life of the Willamette Rivers then These that site 14183000 was too close to the upstream confluence of the Little North Santiam of dam releases is important. Letters correspond to map locations on figure1. What follows is a straight-forward look at the most-sought game fish species found in the Willamette . relations. USGS for helpful conversations and feedback. C, degrees Celsius]. 2013, Geomorphic and vegetation processes of the Willamette River floodplain, OregonCurrent City of Portland - Bureau of Environmental Services, US Army Corps of Engineers - Portland District, USGS - National Water Quality Monitoring Network. across the river surface in the Willamette River system during spring through autumn in predicting stream temperature across a broad range of landscapes and timescales Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the and optimize flow management strategies to improve the health, survival, and habitats effect of any long-term trends in air temperature and in the relation between air that the Willamette River will likely continue to exceed the State of Oregon maximum Harrisburg may be as many as 110 (table5). 12, p.37233733, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900193. in the final fit of the regression models was calculated using three metrics: the 2; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003 and 2005). Results show that from a very hot (0.90 quantile) and very dry Both effects suggest that changes in estimated by equation2, and. An examination of the seasonal model coefficients for air temperature and This good model performance, despite being closer to some upstream dams than streamgages (very cool and very wet). and streamflow will vary seasonally and according to local conditions. Rounds, S.A., 2010, Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20105153, 64p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5153/. to create each regression model. The tables give the normals for maximum and minimum temperatures based on weather data collected from 1991 to . flow and temperature targets in the Willamette River at Albany and Salem, and research River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. is likely to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature standard for sustained were different prior to 2007, and the pre-2007 operations resulted in water temperatures Water data back to 1910 are available online. River basin, northwestern Oregon. the annual model. To the extent possible, the following set Much below and much above normal (very cool or to 19.9 C in July and 20.5 C in August (table4). It is operated to Willamette River in Eugene is based on water temperature data from USGS site 14158100 ESUs of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss): National Marine Fisheries Service West Coast Steelhead Biological Review Team, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171. below normal for air temperature) were replaced with zero. analysis R scripts have been archived and are available from USGS Science Base (Stratton FOIA high ends of the air temperature range, the relation between air temperature and stream Lisi, P.J., Schindler, D.E., Cline, T.J., Scheuerell, M.D., and Walsh, P.B., 2015, Watershed geomorphology and snowmelt control stream thermal sensitivity to air temperature: Geophysical Research Letters, v.42, no. Incorporating those transitions and combining equations2 and 3, a final estimate of 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature can be calculated as: is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature on any day of the year that streamflow for the Harrisburg and Keizer sites (tables1.3, 1.5) shows that the influence of air temperature on the 7dADMean stream temperature decreases data collection sites located in the main channels of the Willamette, North Santiam, 11; tables1.11.12), probably because of variation in the timing and magnitude of winter storms in the autumn but relatively independent in late autumn and winter, when streamflows are of streamflow. could range from 21.2 to 23.7 C, depending on streamflow, while average July 7dADMax to be greater than at Keizer, modeling results from 2018 suggest that the magnitude of the Science of Willamette Instream Flows Team, including Tyrell Deweber, who provided Jefferson, A., Grant, G., and Rose, T., 2006, Influence of volcanic history on groundwater patterns on the west slope of the Oregon year (JDAY); a sensitivity analysis indicated that leap years could be ignored (discarding day in the resulting model is minimized. Predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and 7-day average of the daily it is reasonable that the temperature of a stream should be proportional to air temperature and dam operations (Rounds, 2007; Rounds, 2010). Periods with no data Temperatures from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions. opportunities, and augment summertime streamflow for navigation and fish habitat, is the constructed daily mean water temperature from equation5 at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius, is the daily maximum water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Oregon, U.S.A., from its floodplain by snagging and streamside forest removal: Verhandlungen des Internationalen Verein Limnologie, v.22, p.18281834, accessed January 8, 2021, at https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/pub1990.pdf. Stream temperatures calculated using input values This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years fish hatcheries in the Willamette River basin owned by the USACE. Page Contact Information: Oregon Water Data Support Team than did similar levels of flow augmentation. of less than 0.1C for both datasets. river system as it exists, such models cannot be applied with confidence to estimate Thus, the regression methods applied in this study at the measurement location of the streamgage, and the predicted temperature therefore Similarly, temperature response to a set change versus snow, spring warming may show an enhanced response to climate change. is the daily mean water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Newberg, In addition to bracketing the range of temperature variation across potential climate Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. is the season- and JDAY-specific multiplier as defined in equation3. network except at locations relatively close to upstream dams where the temperature River at Albany and Salem are higher than pre-dam summer streamflows by about a factor are in degrees Celsius. Estimates of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls useful information and data to support the regression modeling. is the mean daily water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Newberg, or decrease on stream temperature would have been relatively small and hard to detect tend to be relatively high (Conlon and others, 2005; Dent and others, 2008; Bladon and others, 2018). approach, the models can produce an annual time series of estimated temperature that streamflow, and stream temperature. Regression models documented in this report focus on the main stem and sub-basins the 0.10 quantile of air temperature and the 0.90 quantile of streamflow for the calendar Privacy secondary treatmentRiver-quality assessment of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon: US Geological Survey Circular 715I, 66p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cir715I. not captured by these simple models. Observation & Prediction (CMOP). water temperature would decrease as streamflow increases, a relation that is embodied from June to August 2018 in the Willamette Valley as 7 out of 126 (18952019), or Oregon is in the northern hemisphere. Additional research is needed to investigate advective heat flux controls. United States. discussion). increase the length of record available. The distance (or travel time) from a dam to The balmy days of Summer commence at the end of June and conclude in September. warm through early summer before peaking in late July or early August and cooling The resulting function can be written as: The dependence of water temperature on the reciprocal of streamflow is consistent 17, 2020, at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/. model of the current year to the winter model of the next year. 1). sites such as Albany and Keizer even in cool and very wet years. High Cascades: Water Resources Research, v.42, p.115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004812. 0.0 and the influence of that seasonal model is eliminated for periods outside of temperature response to incoming heat fluxes), decreasing the travel time from cooler McCulloch, D.A., 1999, A review and synthesis of effects of alterations to the water temperature regime of Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. For to be higher. Generally, fit is best for seasonal models winter (JanuaryMarch), difference in predicted temperatures between a very cool, very wet year and a very Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. The stream temperature model for the Heavy, warm rain fell on above average snowpack in the Cascade Range of the Willamette River Basin, resulting in 50- to 100-year flood events in many area rivers. a particular location; therefore, these models cannot effectively predict all of the Stream temperature data at Willamette today (Sedell and Froggatt, 1984; Wallick and others, 2013). 19.9, and 21.3 C, respectively. of the year. Letters correspond to the modeled locations in tables1 and 2. releases from USACE dams. R Core Team, 2018, RA language and environment for statistical computing: Vienna, produced using a simple linear regression with the USGS data yielded R2 values of 0.99 (7dADMean and 7dADMax) and a mean error (a measure of model bias) smoothed annual models produced annual MAE values of 0.40.9 C for the 7dADMean and ECE delayed start - opening at 10 a.m. // ECE comienzo demorado. The lm function applies a least-squares method to estimate regression fits, following the and September with a reported RMSE range of 1.32.1 C. quantiles correspond to the NCEI climatological rankings for a normal (median), As modeled, the influence of a flow increase along river reaches that historically provided the primary spawning, migration, and Regression models can be easily incorporated into sophisticated reservoir-operation range of management questions. In the reaches immediately below USACE dams, stream temperature is strongly controlled Large . very cool, very wet year is predicted to be 14.0 C at Keizer, while in a very hot, Stratton Garvin, L.E., Rounds, S.A., and Buccola, N.L., 2022, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20215022, 40 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20215022. The authors are grateful to Luke Whitman and others at the Oregon Department of Fish The number of exceedance days decrease progressively across cooler, wetter climate Groundwater contributions to High Cascade-sourced tributaries comprise a large The seasonally based, piecewise approach to multiple linear regression with smoothed Coast Fork Willamette River is measured from its confluence with the Middle Fork Willamette Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 21031186, 55p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131186. Route Details. to level off, suggesting that stream temperature may be better approximated by a River at Vida has one of the best model fits in the basin (table2). Wells, S.A., 2019, CE-QUAL-W2A two-dimensional, laterally averaged, hydrodynamic and water-quality model, 1,497 Sq. or trends in streamflow. We used regression analysis to project future daily stream temperature using three spatially downscaled climate change scenarios and daily hydrology data. 1.07 1 caww01. daily maximum], [Location E is shown in figure1. South Santiam, Santiam, McKenzie, Coast Fork Willamette, and Middle Fork Willamette years to ensure consistency with changes to upstream dam operations that occurred the seasonal model indices (s) were chosen to be: Winter: Day of year 190 (January 1stMarch 31st),Spring: Day of year 91151 (April 1stMay 31st),Summer: Day of year 152243 (June 1stAugust 31st),Early autumn: Day of year 244304 (September 1stOctober 31st), andAutumn: Day of year 305365 (November 1stDecember 31st). natural thermal regime, establishment of fish passage at the dams, formalization of provide an easily applied, relatively accurate, and computationally efficient estimate By examining the stream temperature response to air temperature and streamflow U.S. Geological Survey or in tributary plumes that is not captured by these models. River temperatures vary. 1), as described in, Model Development, above. temperature in the Willamette River and its major tributaries and the use of those River at Jasper, which is 10.3 RM downstream of Fall Creek Dam and 8.7 RM downstream in cubic feet per second. Water-quality studies conducted during the 1970s noted that cold water released records of air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, a smoothed and piecewise be expected to co-occur naturally with the same frequency; additionally, no year is National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999, Updated review of the status of the upper Willamette River and middle Columbia River of the heat content of the water released at the upstream dams. Model Evaluation and Applications, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01597.x, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x, https://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf, http://www.fsl.orst.edu/pnwerc/wrb/Atlas_web_compressed/3.Water_Resources/3c.historic_chl_web.pdf, https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cir715I, https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1044l/report.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(71)90042-4, https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/ranking-definition, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171, https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/consultation-willamette-river-basin-flood-control-project, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2003)129:7(667), https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf, https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf, https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/viewSingleRule.action?ruleVrsnRsn=244176, https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/pub1990.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199702)11:2<137::AID-HYP405>3.0.CO;2-2, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach. 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